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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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