Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
